What the forecasters are betting on
Aggregated probability from 3 major prediction markets. Consensus on AGI by 2030: 41% and rising — but the distribution across sources tells a richer story.
10 QUESTIONS · 38K VOTERS
- PolymarketMarketResolves 2026-12-31
Will any AI lab reach $1T valuation in 2026?
11.2K forecasters7d ·6.4%68%68%32%YESNO - PolymarketPolicyResolves 2027-12-31
Will US pass comprehensive AI regulation by 2027?
8.4K forecasters7d ·1.1%24%24%76%YESNO - MetaculusAGIResolves 2030-12-31
AGI achieved by end of 2030?
5.8K forecasters7d ·4.2%41%41%59%YESNO - MetaculusAGIResolves 2028-12-31
AGI achieved by end of 2028 (consensus definition)?
4.2K forecasters7d ·2.1%18%18%82%YESNO - MetaculusAGIResolves 2035-12-31
AGI achieved by end of 2035?
3.9K forecasters7d ·1.8%71%71%29%YESNO - MetaculusMarketResolves 2030-12-31
AI replaces >10% of white-collar roles by 2030?
3.1K forecasters7d ·3.2%56%56%44%YESNO - MetaculusRiskResolves 2026-12-31
Major AI-caused catastrophe (>$10B damage) in 2026?
2.4K forecasters7d ·1.4%22%22%78%YESNO - ManifoldReleaseResolves 2026-12-31
Will OpenAI release GPT-5 by end of 2026?
2.1K forecasters7d ·3.2%58%58%42%YESNO - ManifoldMarketResolves 2027-12-31
Anthropic will overtake OpenAI in enterprise share by 2027?
1.8K forecasters7d ·5.8%34%34%66%YESNO - ManifoldReleaseResolves 2026-12-31
Open-source model tops LMSYS Arena in 2026?
920 forecasters7d ·8.1%47%47%53%YESNO - ManifoldPolicyResolves 2027-02-01
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
831 forecasters7d ·0%9%9%91%YESNO - ManifoldAGIResolves 2027-03-01
Will we get AGI before 2027?
309 forecasters7d ·0%5%5%95%YESNO - ManifoldAGIResolves 2028-03-03
Will we get AGI before 2028?
305 forecasters7d ·0%18%18%82%YESNO - ManifoldReleaseResolves 2030-01-01
Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?
233 forecasters7d ·0%28%28%72%YESNO - ManifoldMarketResolves 2026-12-31
Will Anthropic surpass OpenAI valuation in 2026?
232 forecasters7d ·0%59%59%41%YESNO - ManifoldReleaseResolves 2026-07-31
Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?
227 forecasters7d ·0%62%62%38%YESNO - ManifoldAGIResolves 2032-03-01
Will we get AGI before 2032?
221 forecasters7d ·0%50%50%50%YESNO - ManifoldReleaseResolves 2030-12-31
Anthropic flips Apple before 2030?
188 forecasters7d ·0%26%26%74%YESNO - ManifoldAGIResolves 2100-01-02
Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?
119 forecasters7d ·0%52%52%48%YESNO - ManifoldReleaseResolves 2027-12-31
Anthropic flips OpenAI before 2028?
118 forecasters7d ·0%67%67%33%YESNO - ManifoldReleaseResolves 2035-01-02
Will General Artificial Intelligence happen before 2035?
117 forecasters7d ·0%68%68%32%YESNO - ManifoldMarketResolves 2030-12-31
Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than OpenAI after both IPO?
93 forecasters7d ·0%56%56%44%YESNO - ManifoldAGIResolves 2040-08-20
Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?
88 forecasters7d ·0%67%67%33%YESNO - ManifoldAGIResolves 2027-01-01
Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?
79 forecasters7d ·0%65%65%35%YESNO - ManifoldPolicyResolves 2026-07-30
Will consumer AI platforms (ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, etc) face an ‘economic blackout’ protest against the US govt?
76 forecasters7d ·0%9%9%91%YESNO - ManifoldAGIResolves 2026-12-31
Above human scores on ARC-AGI-3 in 2026?
74 forecasters7d ·0%19%19%81%YESNO - ManifoldReleaseResolves 2026-06-02
Will OpenAI release a model referred to as "GPT-6" before June 1st, 2026?
73 forecasters7d ·0%14%14%86%YESNO - ManifoldReleaseResolves 2027-01-01
Will the first AI model that saturates Humanity's Last Exam be employable as a software engineer?
73 forecasters7d ·0%66%66%34%YESNO - ManifoldReleaseResolves 2026-12-31
[ACX 2026] Will an AI model reach a 3 hour time horizon with 80% reliability during 2026?
70 forecasters7d ·0%86%86%14%YESNO - ManifoldReleaseResolves 2026-07-31
Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2026]
67 forecasters7d ·0%43%43%57%YESNO