What the forecasters are betting on
Aggregated probability from 3 major prediction markets. Consensus on AGI by 2030: 41% and rising — but the distribution across sources tells a richer story.
10 QUESTIONS · 38K VOTERS
- PolymarketReleaseResolves 2026-07-01
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
253476.0K forecasters7d ·0%0%0%100%YESNO - PolymarketPolicyResolves 2026-04-21
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
161767.3K forecasters7d ·0%0%0%100%YESNO - PolymarketReleaseResolves 2026-04-15
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?
87186.1K forecasters7d ·0%100%100%0%YESNO - PolymarketPolicyResolves 2026-05-31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
87179.8K forecasters7d ·0%0%0%100%YESNO - PolymarketReleaseResolves 2026-07-20
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
73945.4K forecasters7d ·0%0%0%100%YESNO - PolymarketPolicyResolves 2026-06-15
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
73666.7K forecasters7d ·0%97%97%3%YESNO - PolymarketPolicyResolves 2026-07-20
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
72805.0K forecasters7d ·0%2%2%98%YESNO - PolymarketReleaseResolves 2026-07-20
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
64368.7K forecasters7d ·0%0%0%100%YESNO - PolymarketReleaseResolves 2026-07-20
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
64309.5K forecasters7d ·0%1%1%99%YESNO - PolymarketReleaseResolves 2026-07-20
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
62957.0K forecasters7d ·0%1%1%99%YESNO - PolymarketPolicyResolves 2026-12-31
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
61829.8K forecasters7d ·0%2%2%98%YESNO - PolymarketReleaseResolves 2026-07-20
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
61409.2K forecasters7d ·0%0%0%100%YESNO - PolymarketReleaseResolves 2026-04-29
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
60866.4K forecasters7d ·0%0%0%100%YESNO - PolymarketPolicyResolves 2026-07-20
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
59867.6K forecasters7d ·0%0%0%100%YESNO - PolymarketReleaseResolves 2026-07-20
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
58979.9K forecasters7d ·0%0%0%100%YESNO - PolymarketReleaseResolves 2026-07-20
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
58249.4K forecasters7d ·0%0%0%100%YESNO - PolymarketReleaseResolves 2026-06-30
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
57517.3K forecasters7d ·0%1%1%99%YESNO - PolymarketReleaseResolves 2026-07-20
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
57224.7K forecasters7d ·0%0%0%100%YESNO - PolymarketReleaseResolves 2026-07-20
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
56483.9K forecasters7d ·0%0%0%100%YESNO - PolymarketReleaseResolves 2026-07-20
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
56196.8K forecasters7d ·0%1%1%99%YESNO - PolymarketReleaseResolves 2026-07-20
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
55984.6K forecasters7d ·0%1%1%99%YESNO - PolymarketReleaseResolves 2026-07-20
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
55700.1K forecasters7d ·0%2%2%98%YESNO - PolymarketReleaseResolves 2026-07-20
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
55133.9K forecasters7d ·0%18%18%82%YESNO - PolymarketReleaseResolves 2026-07-20
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
54977.1K forecasters7d ·0%0%0%100%YESNO - PolymarketReleaseResolves 2026-07-20
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
54883.0K forecasters7d ·0%0%0%100%YESNO - PolymarketReleaseResolves 2026-07-20
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
54785.6K forecasters7d ·0%2%2%98%YESNO - PolymarketPolicyResolves 2026-07-20
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
54516.3K forecasters7d ·0%0%0%100%YESNO - PolymarketReleaseResolves 2026-07-20
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
54204.9K forecasters7d ·0%2%2%98%YESNO - PolymarketReleaseResolves 2026-04-29
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
54070.5K forecasters7d ·0%100%100%0%YESNO - PolymarketReleaseResolves 2026-04-29
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
53912.8K forecasters7d ·0%0%0%100%YESNO